TAMPASPINS BLOG

TROPICAL THREAT COMING FIRST OF JUNE POSSIBLY

Posted by Timothy Richardson on May 31, 2015 at 7:30 AM

visitor statsTampaSpins TROPICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS

What is in the MODEL FORECAST:

The GFS and CMC MODELS are showing a system devloping coming out of the Carribean and moving over Cuba into the Bahamas.  The CMC MODEL is very aggressive in showing a very strong Hurricane developing and moving toward the Carolina's!  If you look at the MJO uplift forecast it shows a strong moisture surge this same time as well.  Something we have to watch for sure.  The EURO and Navy model hint at something, but currently show nothing developing!

THANKS,

Tim


Areas of Interest (AOI) from the National Hurricane Center



This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.

Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)

Tropical Weather Discussion


 





2015 Named Storms:

Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda  

 

 

TampaSpins Blog with

Graphic Analysis:

The blog section will have less graphics about each storm but, all will be referenced to the Tropical Weather Tab for more graphics.

Below are some links you might like for helping your own analysis:

USE my TAB at the top called TROPICAL MODELS to get pop ups views of all the MAJOR MODELS used or simply click the graphics below to get the most current Model Runs! 

Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP! It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.

Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

Right Click and Open a new Window!


MODEL ANALYSIS

GFS MODEL




ECMFW MODEL



CMC MODEL




NAVY MODEL

 

Sea Surface Temperatures or SST's 80 degrees Fer.

or 26.5 degrees Celcius is the Temperature needed for Tropical Development Normally!

 

 



Current Shear

Right click and open a new window to Loop!


 

Steering Layer 700-850mb or

1000mb pressure 45kts storms

Steering Layer 500-850mb or

990-999mb pressure 45-60kts storms

Steering Layer 400-850mb or

970-989mb/60-90kts storms

Steering Layer 300-850mb or

950-969mb pressure 90-112kts storms

Steering Layer 250-850mb or

940-949mb pressure 112-122kts storms

 

Steering Layer 200-700mb or

940mb pressure 122kts and larger storms

850mb Vorticity

700mb Vorticity

500mb Vorticity

200mb Vorticity


Upper Divergence

Lower Convergence

SAHARAN AIR LAYER

Data provided by National Data Buoy Center

DART Buoys


Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!

SINCE YOU ARE READING THIS YOU ARE A MEMBER! DON'T FORGET TO USE THE INSTANT MESSENGER AND SIGN IN. ITS A QUICK WAY TO SEE WHO IS ONLINE FOR INTERACTION WITH OTHERS!

 

I really appreciate the great comments you all leave. I try to always reply back if you leave a question or a REQUEST. And please leave comments on the Blog good or bad as all are welcome.

Thank you all for visting my Blog,

Tim...

visitor stats

free hit counters

 

Categories: MAY 2015, TROPICAL WEATHER THREAT BLOG

Post a Comment

Oops!

Oops, you forgot something.

Oops!

The words you entered did not match the given text. Please try again.

You must be a member to comment on this page. Sign In or Register

4 Comments

Reply Timothy Richardson
10:04 AM on June 9, 2015 
Tropics are quite and the models show nothing developing over the next 7 day!
Reply Timothy Richardson
8:33 AM on June 5, 2015 
The Tropical Threat once thought to occur by models has diminished. The EURO and the CMC are both hinting at something in the Gulf of Mexico in about 1 week out or June 12th time frame.
Reply Timothy Richardson
9:39 AM on June 2, 2015 
The MODELS have changed some for the Tropical Development this week. The GFS and CMC take a Low out to sea. The EURO really never developed anything much. I would have to say, that until we see anything on the EURO MODEL the less chance of seeing anything develop!
Reply Timothy Richardson
6:34 AM on June 1, 2015 
Looking at the models.....The GFS, NAVY, and the CMC MODELS all a system developing into a NAMED TROPICAL SYSTEM. The EURO model is not showing anything. One thing of note tho, is that the GFS MODEL does not show this to be a completely WARM CORE SYSTEM THO.