TAMPASPINS BLOG

TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

Posted by Timothy Richardson on October 16, 2014 at 10:55 AM

visitor statsTampaSpins TROPICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS


What is in the MODEL FORECAST:

Models are in fairly good agreement that a TROPICAL STORM will develop in the SW Gulf of Mexico caused by a stalled cold front and INVEST 92E in the Pacific that will likely cross Mexico and move into the BOC in the Gulf of Mexico.  Every model currently shows this occuring.  What happens from there is uncertain as for as how strong and where it goes.  Currently most models move it in the general direction toward Florida.  I won't go there as i only try to tell you what the models are showing.  Intensity beyond 72 hours is impossible to forecast because of Shear.  Shear is currently forecasted by models not all favorable but not all that unfavorable either.  WE will likely see some Circulation starting in the BOC in about 3-4 days or SUNDAY/MONDAY!  I only tell you what the models say and i as all can change over the next few days!

THANKS,

Tim


Areas of Interest (AOI) from the National Hurricane Center



This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.

Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)

Tropical Weather Discussion


 



 

2014 Named Storms:

 

Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred 

 

 

TampaSpins Blog with

Graphic Analysis:

The blog section will have less graphics about each storm but, all will be referenced to the Tropical Weather Tab for more graphics.

Below are some links you might like for helping your own analysis:

USE my TAB at the top called TROPICAL MODELS to get pop ups views of all the MAJOR MODELS used or simply click the graphics below to get the most current Model Runs! 

Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP! It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.

Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

Right Click and Open a new Window!


MODEL ANALYSIS

GFS MODEL





ECMFW MODEL



CMC MODEL




NAVY MODEL

 

Sea Surface Temperatures or SST's 80 degrees Fer.

or 26.5 degrees Celcius is the Temperature needed for Tropical Development Normally!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Shear

Right click and open a new window to Loop!

Steering Layer 700-850mb or

1000mb pressure 45kts storms

Steering Layer 500-850mb or

990-999mb pressure 45-60kts storms

Steering Layer 400-850mb or

970-989mb/60-90kts storms

Steering Layer 300-850mb or

950-969mb pressure 90-112kts storms

Steering Layer 250-850mb or

940-949mb pressure 112-122kts storms

 

Steering Layer 200-700mb or

940mb pressure 122kts and larger storms

850mb Vorticity

Upper Divergence

Lower Convergence


Data provided by National Data Buoy Center

DART Buoys


Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!

SINCE YOU ARE READING THIS YOU ARE A MEMBER! DON'T FORGET TO USE THE INSTANT MESSENGER AND SIGN IN. ITS A QUICK WAY TO SEE WHO IS ONLINE FOR INTERACTION WITH OTHERS!

 

I really appreciate the great comments you all leave. I try to always reply back if you leave a question or a REQUEST. And please leave comments on the Blog good or bad as all are welcome.

Thank you all for visting my Blog,

Tim...

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Categories: OCTOBER 2014, TROPICAL WEATHER THREAT BLOG

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