TAMPASPINS BLOG

NOTHING IN THE TROPICS 10-2-14

Posted by Timothy Richardson on October 2, 2014 at 1:20 AM

visitor statsTampaSpins TROPICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS


What is in the MODEL FORECAST:

Models currently are not showing anything of major concern over the next 5 days!  However the GFS Model and NAVY Model show a Tropical wave moving from the Atlantic into the Caribbean in about 7 days.  The GFS Model has been on and off developing this wave.  There is a Cold front that will move very far south into the Gulf of Mexico and really shut down much of the Tropical Development chances for a while.  Keep in mind that many Tropical systems develop on the tail ends of stalled cold fronts.  Something to watch down the road, but again NOTHING to worry in the Tropics.  The NHC does have Invest 97L and 98L.....I am not going to even post any graphics on these as they are completely of non interest and probably did not even warrent an Invest declared.

THANKS,

Tim


Areas of Interest (AOI) from the National Hurricane Center



This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.

Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)

Tropical Weather Discussion


 




 

2014 Named Storms:

 

Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred 

 

 

TampaSpins Blog with

Graphic Analysis:

The blog section will have less graphics about each storm but, all will be referenced to the Tropical Weather Tab for more graphics.

Below are some links you might like for helping your own analysis:

USE my TAB at the top called TROPICAL MODELS to get pop ups views of all the MAJOR MODELS used or simply click the graphics below to get the most current Model Runs! 

Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP! It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.

Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

Right Click and Open a new Window!


MODEL ANALYSIS

GFS MODEL





ECMFW MODEL



CMC MODEL




NAVY MODEL

 

Sea Surface Temperatures or SST's 80 degrees Fer.

or 26.5 degrees Celcius is the Temperature needed for Tropical Development Normally!




Current Shear

Right click and open a new window to Loop!


 

Steering Layer 700-850mb or

1000mb pressure 45kts storms

Steering Layer 500-850mb or

990-999mb pressure 45-60kts storms

Steering Layer 400-850mb or

970-989mb/60-90kts storms

Steering Layer 300-850mb or

950-969mb pressure 90-112kts storms

Steering Layer 250-850mb or

940-949mb pressure 112-122kts storms

 

Steering Layer 200-700mb or

940mb pressure 122kts and larger storms

925mb Vorticity


850mb Vorticity

700mb Vorticity

500mb Vorticity

200mb Vorticity

Upper Divergence

Lower Convergence

SAHARAN AIR LAYER

Data provided by National Data Buoy Center

DART Buoys

NAM MODEL

Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!

SINCE YOU ARE READING THIS YOU ARE A MEMBER! DON'T FORGET TO USE THE INSTANT MESSENGER AND SIGN IN. ITS A QUICK WAY TO SEE WHO IS ONLINE FOR INTERACTION WITH OTHERS!

 

I really appreciate the great comments you all leave. I try to always reply back if you leave a question or a REQUEST. And please leave comments on the Blog good or bad as all are welcome.

Thank you all for visting my Blog,

Tim...

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Categories: OCTOBER 2014

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1 Comment

Reply Timothy Richardson
9:29 AM on October 3, 2014 
Nearly every Model is showing an area of Low pressure developing in Caribbean in about 7 days! The GFS Model which goes out to 14 days shows this system moving out of the Caribbean as a what appears to be a Closed Low system and moving into the Big Bend area of North Florida as pictured below at 312hr out....NOW I don't like putting much importance on a model out that far and even beyond 5 days is a little much. But, as I have always said, I only read what the models show and this is what they are saying. Need to pay some attention to this come MONDAY and the first of next week to see if the Models continue with the GFS current possibility!