TAMPASPINS BLOG

TROUBLE AHEAD

Posted by Timothy Richardson on September 18, 2014 at 2:10 AM

visitor statsTampaSpins TROPICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS


What is in the MODEL FORECAST:

The Models are hinting at something that might be a real possibility.  The EURO model and the GFS model both are showing a Tropical System developing in the GULF OF MEXICO and moving across Florida as a Cold front approaches.  Models show something developing in about 8-10 days or about September 26th.  We have not seen this often where we have both the major models agreeing this far out that something will develop.  We need to watch this very closely to see if this trend continues!!!  JUST something to watch.

Elsewhere, we will see some MAJOR FLASH FLOODING again from the WEST caused by Hurricane Odile.  The impact into Arizona could be as bad if not worst than last week! 

THANKS,

Tim


Areas of Interest (AOI) from the National Hurricane Center



This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.

Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)

Tropical Weather Discussion


 




 

2014 Named Storms:

 

Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred 

 

 

TampaSpins Blog with

Graphic Analysis:

The blog section will have less graphics about each storm but, all will be referenced to the Tropical Weather Tab for more graphics.

Below are some links you might like for helping your own analysis:

USE my TAB at the top called TROPICAL MODELS to get pop ups views of all the MAJOR MODELS used! 

Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP! It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.

Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

Right Click and Open a new Window!


MODEL ANALYSIS

GFS MODEL





ECMFW MODEL



CMC MODEL




NAVY MODEL











 

 

Sea Surface Temperatures or SST's 80 degrees Fer.

or 26.5 degrees Celcius is the Temperature needed for Tropical Development Normally!




Current Shear

Right click and open a new window to Loop!


 

Steering Layer 700-850mb or

1000mb pressure 45kts storms

Steering Layer 500-850mb or

990-999mb pressure 45-60kts storms

Steering Layer 400-850mb or

970-989mb/60-90kts storms

Steering Layer 300-850mb or

950-969mb pressure 90-112kts storms

Steering Layer 250-850mb or

940-949mb pressure 112-122kts storms

 

Steering Layer 200-700mb or

940mb pressure 122kts and larger storms

925mb Vorticity


850mb Vorticity

700mb Vorticity

500mb Vorticity

200mb Vorticity

Upper Divergence

Lower Convergence

SAHARAN AIR LAYER

Data provided by National Data Buoy Center

DART Buoys

NAM MODEL

Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!

SINCE YOU ARE READING THIS YOU ARE A MEMBER! DON'T FORGET TO USE THE INSTANT MESSENGER AND SIGN IN. ITS A QUICK WAY TO SEE WHO IS ONLINE FOR INTERACTION WITH OTHERS!

 

I really appreciate the great comments you all leave. I try to always reply back if you leave a question or a REQUEST. And please leave comments on the Blog good or bad as all are welcome.

Thank you all for visting my Blog,

Tim...

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Categories: TROPICAL WEATHER THREAT BLOG

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4 Comments

Reply rbee
10:03 AM on April 17, 2015 
GWO has just posted their 2015 seasonal outlook for anyone interested.
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2015/04/prweb12657043.htm
Reply Timothy Richardson
9:41 AM on September 24, 2014 
The GFS Model LONG Range out to 10 days is again showing a system rising out of the Caribbean! Something to watch, otherwise there is nothing from the models showing in the Tropics over the next 5 days! NOTHING!
Reply Timothy Richardson
9:14 AM on September 23, 2014 
Nothing in the Atlantic is showing on any of the Models for the next 5 days! NOTHING!
Reply Timothy Richardson
9:07 AM on September 19, 2014 
Wow, the GFS MODEL really bombs the NEW ORLEANS area with a VERY STRONG HURRICANE in about 12-14 days out! I don't put a lot of credibility this far out, but to see the EURO MODEL showing a storm developing too this far out does tend to give a lot of fear for something to develop!