TAMPASPINS BLOG

TampaSpins Tropical Update

Posted by Timothy Richardson on June 12, 2014 at 2:30 AM

 

 

visitor statsTampaSpins TROPICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS

READ MY COMMENTS AND OTHERS FOR UPDATES ON THE TROPICS. PLEASE LEAVE A COMMENT!

TC Activity

Areas of Interest (AOI) from the National Hurricane Center

This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.

Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)

Tropical Weather Discussion


 




Sea Surface Temperatures or SST's 80 degrees Fer.

or 26.5 degrees Celcius is the Temperature needed for Tropical Development Normally! 

 

 

Visible Image - Java - Flash

IR AVN Image - Java - Flash

IR Shortwave Image - Java - Flash

IR Funktop Image - Java - Flash

IR Rainbow Image - Java - Flash

Water Vapor Image - Java - Flash

2014 Named Storms:

 

Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred 

 

 

TampaSpins Blog

Graphic Analysis:

The blog section will have less graphics about each storm but, all will be referenced to the Tropical Weather Tab for more graphics.

Below are some links you might like for helping your own analysis:

SHORT RANGE Computer models

Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP! It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.

Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

Right Click and Open a new Window!

 

 

Current Shear

Right click and open a new window to Loop!


 

Steering Layer 700-850mb or

1000mb pressure 45kts storms

Steering Layer 500-850mb or

990-999mb pressure 45-60kts storms

Steering Layer 400-850mb or

970-989mb/60-90kts storms

Steering Layer 300-850mb or

950-969mb pressure 90-112kts storms

Steering Layer 250-850mb or

940-949mb pressure 112-122kts storms

 

Steering Layer 200-700mb or

940mb pressure 122kts and larger storms

850mb Vorticity

700mb Vorticity

500mb Vorticity

200mb Vorticity

Upper Divergence

Lower Convergence

SAHARAN AIR LAYER

Data provided by National Data Buoy Center

DART Buoys

NAM MODEL

Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!

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I really appreciate the great comments you all leave. I try to always reply back if you leave a question or a REQUEST. And please leave comments on the Blog good or bad as all are welcome.

Thank you all for visting my Blog,

Tim...

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Categories: TROPICAL WEATHER THREAT BLOG

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37 Comments

Reply Timothy Richardson
12:55 PM on August 26, 2013 
We have a Consensus of models showing the likely development of the first Hurricane of the season in the Atlantic late this week or beginning of next week. Models currently and must say again CURRENTLY show a recurve out to sea as it approaches near Puerto Rico! The feature just rolled off Africa and will likely be labeled an Invest at any time as a spin already appears present. The peak of the Tropical Season occurs around September 10th. We are currently running about average for storms currently. Forecasters predicted an above average season. Time for things to really heat up if that forecast is to occur. I said about 1 month ago that I thought it would be about an average season because of the amount of SAL and Shear from strong fronts. We shall see soon. YOU can follow all your needs at my website! LIKE AND SHARE!
http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/
Reply Timothy Richardson
5:56 PM on August 12, 2013 
The NHC will likely declare an Invest in the Caribbean very soon as models have a Consensus that a system will likely develop and move into the Gulf of Mexico. Where it goes and how strong is not to be speculated yet. But, keep one eye open as this could be interesting times coming for someone about Sunday and Monday.
Reply Timothy Richardson
12:06 AM on August 11, 2013 
The CMC MODEL has a Storm developing in the GULF OF MEXICO in about 7 days. The Navy Model also shows the same system in the NW Caribbean. Need to watch how this plays out. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/2013081012/slp30.png
Reply Timothy Richardson
9:03 AM on August 7, 2013 
The Tropics still appear very quite. NHC has place a ZERO percent ring on a area just entering the Caribbean. Shear is very high there. Keep in mind tho that Zero simply means that the NHC does not believe Tropical Development will occur in the next 48hrs. It does not mean that it won't develop after 48hrs. Something to watch as Shear could be dropping in the area as it approaches, but I doubt it. We also have a fairly strong wave that will be exiting off Africa, but MODELS just don't like developing it into much of anything. DRY AIR and SHEAR is the problem off Africa as well. Lets keep them TROPICS QUITE!
Reply Timothy Richardson
9:25 AM on July 31, 2013 
I am still watching EX-Dorian....as its still worth watching as it approached the Gulf of Mexico. Shear seems to be just too high for anything to get going. Even the Shear in the GOM is still a little high!
Reply Timothy Richardson
9:23 AM on July 31, 2013 
The Tropics appear to be quiet for now, but that won't last come mid August as the heat of the Tropical season starts and models are showing a major return of MJO at the exact time. This could get very busy very quickly.
Reply Timothy Richardson
1:13 AM on July 9, 2013 
After looking at all features concerning Chantal, I believe Chantal has a very HIGH RISK POTENTIAL of a VERY STRONG ConUs land fall HURRICANE. Looking at what the models are doing it appears that Chantal will move more East out into open Atlantic waters East of the Bahamas before making a move WEST toward the ConUs. Because of the exit out of the Caribbean possibly missing major Major Mountains peaks and move into the Atlantic further East before nearing the ConUs East Coast, this will allow Chantal to Strengthen under the Supreme LOW Shear conditions with a building Bermuda High forcing Chantal toward the ConUs EAST Coast. My best guess at this time would be from Miami to North Carolina better watch this very close for a Strong Land Falling Hurricane. This will completely change if it moves over High Mountains or not. Watch the Models at my WEBSITE to see things change. Below is the current forecast strength for Chantal from the National Hurricane Center as of 11pm 7/8/13!
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 12.4N 56.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 13.7N 59.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 15.3N 63.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 17.1N 67.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 19.0N 71.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 22.5N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 25.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 27.5N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201303_model_inten
sity.gif

Here is the link to my website as well.... http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/activetropicalsystems.htm
Reply Timothy Richardson
8:58 AM on June 12, 2013 
Tropics are clear for the next 7 days.
Reply Timothy Richardson
2:35 PM on June 10, 2013 
The Tropics are completely Quiet in the Atlantic. Computer Models show NO DEVELOPMENT over the next 7 days. The GFS LONG RANGE MODEL tries to develop something in the SW Caribbean in about 8 days. That is too far out to suggest anything. Shear is extremely how in the TDR (Tropical Development Regions). If I had to make a guess where the next storm will form it would like be in the BOC (Bay of Campeche) in the Gulf of Mexico!
Reply Timothy Richardson
9:42 AM on June 7, 2013 
The Forecast Models are not predicting 92L to form into so tropical system. Shear is just to high and nothing on the models over the next 7 days are in the forecast!
Reply Timothy Richardson
5:01 AM on October 27, 2012 
TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

THE STRUCTURE OF SANDY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVERNIGHT. THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER AND A DEEP WARM CORE. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AT THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL IS FULLY ENTRAINED INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS STEADY AROUND 969 MB...
BUT AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE PEAK WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO
AROUND 60 KT WHILE THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE LOCATED IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...WHERE RECENT SFMR AND DROPSONDE DATA
SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF WINDS AROUND 55 KT.

WHILE A LITTLE WEAKENING OF THE PEAK WINDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WEST OF SANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DEEP CENTRAL PRESSURE.
AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENING DUE TO
BAROCLINIC FORCING WHILE THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE.
THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS SANDY AGAIN REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AT
48 HOURS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL
DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT SANDY
WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

SANDY HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
020/09. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS
SANDY WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SHARP
NORTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST IS EXPECTED AFTER 48
HOURS AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE CAROLINAS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL...BUT THE MOST
NOTABLE TREND THIS CYCLE IS TOWARD A FASTER MOTION AS THE CYCLONE
TURNS NORTHWESTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION AND SHOWS THE CENTER INLAND AT 72 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE
NEW NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS THROUGH 72 HOURS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT STRUCTURE AND LANDFALL LOCATION...SANDY IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.

NOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 28.6N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 29.8N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 31.4N 74.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 33.2N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 35.7N 71.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 40.0N 75.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0600Z 41.5N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0600Z 43.5N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Reply Timothy Richardson
11:42 PM on October 24, 2012 
Sandy will REMAIN a Hurricane according to the NHC. This is a change from their Forecast. SOUTHEAST FLORIDA and The FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL HAVE Sustain Tropical Storm force Winds. It appears winds of about 45-50mph is likely along the F
lorida EAST Coast. Although not good for Florida, more concerning it what the affects of Sandy might bring to the NORTHEAST! I fear a PERFECT STORM type Storm will materialize and Slam into near the Nanctucket, Mass area not to rule out a direct hit into the NEW YORK CITY area. This system has the chance at becoming a BOMB as it transitions into a Subtropical System and expands its Wind field. If this system tracks toward the Massasschuttes area as expected....their appears to be just enough COLD AIR IN PLACE to really produce one HECK Of a SNOW STORM along with Winds as high as a Cat. 2 Hurricane. None of this is a certainity in the NORTHEAST, but these MODEL RUNS just have not budged much lately. The Euro, Navy, and Canadian Models are EXPLODING a MAJOR STORM into the NORTHEAST. The GFS MODEL as well turns Sandy toward the West, but much further North into Canada.
Reply Timothy Richardson
12:35 AM on October 23, 2012 
I just don't see Sandy hitting Florida or effecting any part of the ConUS. A very large trough should kick the tropical system out to the Central Atlantic after pounding the Bahamas very hard!
Reply Timothy Richardson
4:41 AM on October 11, 2012 
2 areas of Interest Invest 97L and 98L are now at a 50% chance of Development within the next 48hrs. Neither pose any threat much to the ConUs. But, Puerto Rico and the Domincan Republic and Bahamas could be some serious Weather from Invest 98L. It should move NNW as it develops!
Reply Timothy Richardson
8:45 AM on September 28, 2012 
The SHEAR has increased across nearly the entire Tropical Atlantic including the Gulf of Mexico. There are some small pockets of Shear below 20kts but not much. Models are still suggesting a Small Tropical Feature to develop in the Western Gulf of Mexico and head very quickly toward the Northern Gulf Coast States as far east as the Panhandle of Florida. This possibility appears to be on Sunday with the possibility of development. It should only be a rain maker with under 50kts of wind at the most in my opinion.
Also, Models also try to form a Tropical System in the very far Eastern Atlantic. Even if something forms the odds of it making it to any MainLand with the troughs that now continue is not likely. We will watch and see tho.
Reply Timothy Richardson
1:21 AM on September 25, 2012 
Is the Tropical Atlantic Season over.....HUM...getting very close as Shear has really taken over the MDR (Main Development Region)! Cold Fronts are getting more numerous now! The main areas to watch for development will be in the Western Caribbean and the BOC in the Gulf of Mexico. I would not say the season is over yet, but with the high shear things just can't develop.
Reply Timothy Richardson
11:42 AM on September 20, 2012 
Need to watch the SW Gulf of Mexico (BOC) as a twist seems to be trying to start on the tail end of the Cold front. This is a typical place to watch for development this time of year. Conditions are not all that favorable as Dry air is present but certainly not all that bad for something to form. Models are starting to see the same as my eyes are seeing.
Reply Timothy Richardson
1:33 AM on September 18, 2012 
Invest 92L has not improved much in organization late this evening. Again i don't expect 92L to be much until it reaches the Central Caribbean in a couple of days before some organizing will start to occur!
Reply Timothy Richardson
12:29 PM on September 17, 2012 
Invest 93L is NO concern as it is inland. It will bring some serious rains into the New Orleans area as FLOODING will be a problem. Invest 92L is about to enter the Caribbean soon. I don't look for this system to develop until it reaches the central Caribbean. With that assuming it does develop in the Central Caribbean, 92L still has the potential to become a Hurricane as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. The timing of a front will determine where 92L moves. This could be a very share right turning system when it runs into a front.
Reply Timothy Richardson
12:25 AM on September 16, 2012 
Well, here we go again. Invest 92L could become a very large Hurricane if the Intensity Forecast Models are correct. Everything will depend on the track of Invest 92L! If the system stays in the Caribbean and tracks South of the Dominican Republic and Haiti then the potential will be there for this thing to become a MAJOR HURRICANE! Need to watch the progress very Close!