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TampaSpins TROPICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS
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Areas of Interest (AOI) from the National Hurricane Center
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
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SHORT RANGE Computer models
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37 Comments
We have a Consensus of models showing the likely development of the first Hurricane of the season in the Atlantic late this week or beginning of next week. Models currently and must say again CURRENTLY show a recurve out to sea as it approaches near Puerto Rico! The feature just rolled off Africa and will likely be labeled an Invest at any time as a spin already appears present. The peak of the Tropical Season occurs around September 10th. We are currently running about average for storms currently. Forecasters predicted an above average season. Time for things to really heat up if that forecast is to occur. I said about 1 month ago that I thought it would be about an average season because of the amount of SAL and Shear from strong fronts. We shall see soon. YOU can follow all your needs at my website! LIKE AND SHARE!
http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/
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The NHC will likely declare an Invest in the Caribbean very soon as models have a Consensus that a system will likely develop and move into the Gulf of Mexico. Where it goes and how strong is not to be speculated yet. But, keep one eye open as this could be interesting times coming for someone about Sunday and Monday.
The CMC MODEL has a Storm developing in the GULF OF MEXICO in about 7 days. The Navy Model also shows the same system in the NW Caribbean. Need to watch how this plays out. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/2013081012/slp30.png
The Tropics still appear very quite. NHC has place a ZERO percent ring on a area just entering the Caribbean. Shear is very high there. Keep in mind tho that Zero simply means that the NHC does not believe Tropical Development will occur in the next 48hrs. It does not mean that it won't develop after 48hrs. Something to watch as Shear could be dropping in the area as it approaches, but I doubt it. We also have a fairly strong wave that will be exiting off Africa, but MODELS just don't like developing it into much of anything. DRY AIR and SHEAR is the problem off Africa as well. Lets keep them TROPICS QUITE!
I am still watching EX-Dorian....as its still worth watching as it approached the Gulf of Mexico. Shear seems to be just too high for anything to get going. Even the Shear in the GOM is still a little high!
The Tropics appear to be quiet for now, but that won't last come mid August as the heat of the Tropical season starts and models are showing a major return of MJO at the exact time. This could get very busy very quickly.
After looking at all features concerning Chantal, I believe Chantal has a very HIGH RISK POTENTIAL of a VERY STRONG ConUs land fall HURRICANE. Looking at what the models are doing it appears that Chantal will move more East out into open Atlantic waters East of the Bahamas before making a move WEST toward the ConUs. Because of the exit out of the Caribbean possibly missing major Major Mountains peaks and move into the Atlantic further East before nearing the ConUs East Coast, this will allow Chantal to Strengthen under the Supreme LOW Shear conditions with a building Bermuda High forcing Chantal toward the ConUs EAST Coast. My best guess at this time would be from Miami to North Carolina better watch this very close for a Strong Land Falling Hurricane. This will completely change if it moves over High Mountains or not. Watch the Models at my WEBSITE to see things change. Below is the current forecast strength for Chantal from the National Hurricane Center as of 11pm 7/8/13!
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 12.4N 56.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 13.7N 59.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 15.3N 63.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 17.1N 67.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 19.0N 71.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 22.5N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 25.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 27.5N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201303_model_inten
sity.gif
Here is the link to my website as well.... http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/activetropicalsystems.htm
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 12.4N 56.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 13.7N 59.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 15.3N 63.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 17.1N 67.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 19.0N 71.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 22.5N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 25.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 27.5N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201303_model_inten
sity.gif
Here is the link to my website as well.... http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/activetropicalsystems.htm
The Tropics are completely Quiet in the Atlantic. Computer Models show NO DEVELOPMENT over the next 7 days. The GFS LONG RANGE MODEL tries to develop something in the SW Caribbean in about 8 days. That is too far out to suggest anything. Shear is extremely how in the TDR (Tropical Development Regions). If I had to make a guess where the next storm will form it would like be in the BOC (Bay of Campeche) in the Gulf of Mexico!
The Forecast Models are not predicting 92L to form into so tropical system. Shear is just to high and nothing on the models over the next 7 days are in the forecast!
TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
THE STRUCTURE OF SANDY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVERNIGHT. THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER AND A DEEP WARM CORE. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AT THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL IS FULLY ENTRAINED INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS STEADY AROUND 969 MB...
BUT AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE PEAK WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO
AROUND 60 KT WHILE THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE LOCATED IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...WHERE RECENT SFMR AND DROPSONDE DATA
SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF WINDS AROUND 55 KT.
WHILE A LITTLE WEAKENING OF THE PEAK WINDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WEST OF SANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DEEP CENTRAL PRESSURE.
AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENING DUE TO
BAROCLINIC FORCING WHILE THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE.
THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS SANDY AGAIN REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AT
48 HOURS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL
DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT SANDY
WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
SANDY HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
020/09. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS
SANDY WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SHARP
NORTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST IS EXPECTED AFTER 48
HOURS AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE CAROLINAS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL...BUT THE MOST
NOTABLE TREND THIS CYCLE IS TOWARD A FASTER MOTION AS THE CYCLONE
TURNS NORTHWESTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION AND SHOWS THE CENTER INLAND AT 72 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE
NEW NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS THROUGH 72 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT STRUCTURE AND LANDFALL LOCATION...SANDY IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.
NOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 28.6N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 29.8N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 31.4N 74.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 33.2N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 35.7N 71.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 40.0N 75.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0600Z 41.5N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0600Z 43.5N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
THE STRUCTURE OF SANDY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVERNIGHT. THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER AND A DEEP WARM CORE. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AT THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL IS FULLY ENTRAINED INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS STEADY AROUND 969 MB...
BUT AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE PEAK WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO
AROUND 60 KT WHILE THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE LOCATED IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...WHERE RECENT SFMR AND DROPSONDE DATA
SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF WINDS AROUND 55 KT.
WHILE A LITTLE WEAKENING OF THE PEAK WINDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WEST OF SANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DEEP CENTRAL PRESSURE.
AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENING DUE TO
BAROCLINIC FORCING WHILE THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE.
THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS SANDY AGAIN REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AT
48 HOURS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL
DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT SANDY
WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
SANDY HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
020/09. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS
SANDY WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SHARP
NORTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST IS EXPECTED AFTER 48
HOURS AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE CAROLINAS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL...BUT THE MOST
NOTABLE TREND THIS CYCLE IS TOWARD A FASTER MOTION AS THE CYCLONE
TURNS NORTHWESTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION AND SHOWS THE CENTER INLAND AT 72 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE
NEW NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS THROUGH 72 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT STRUCTURE AND LANDFALL LOCATION...SANDY IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.
NOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 28.6N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 29.8N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 31.4N 74.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 33.2N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 35.7N 71.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 40.0N 75.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0600Z 41.5N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0600Z 43.5N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Sandy will REMAIN a Hurricane according to the NHC. This is a change from their Forecast. SOUTHEAST FLORIDA and The FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL HAVE Sustain Tropical Storm force Winds. It appears winds of about 45-50mph is likely along the F
lorida EAST Coast. Although not good for Florida, more concerning it what the affects of Sandy might bring to the NORTHEAST! I fear a PERFECT STORM type Storm will materialize and Slam into near the Nanctucket, Mass area not to rule out a direct hit into the NEW YORK CITY area. This system has the chance at becoming a BOMB as it transitions into a Subtropical System and expands its Wind field. If this system tracks toward the Massasschuttes area as expected....their appears to be just enough COLD AIR IN PLACE to really produce one HECK Of a SNOW STORM along with Winds as high as a Cat. 2 Hurricane. None of this is a certainity in the NORTHEAST, but these MODEL RUNS just have not budged much lately. The Euro, Navy, and Canadian Models are EXPLODING a MAJOR STORM into the NORTHEAST. The GFS MODEL as well turns Sandy toward the West, but much further North into Canada.
lorida EAST Coast. Although not good for Florida, more concerning it what the affects of Sandy might bring to the NORTHEAST! I fear a PERFECT STORM type Storm will materialize and Slam into near the Nanctucket, Mass area not to rule out a direct hit into the NEW YORK CITY area. This system has the chance at becoming a BOMB as it transitions into a Subtropical System and expands its Wind field. If this system tracks toward the Massasschuttes area as expected....their appears to be just enough COLD AIR IN PLACE to really produce one HECK Of a SNOW STORM along with Winds as high as a Cat. 2 Hurricane. None of this is a certainity in the NORTHEAST, but these MODEL RUNS just have not budged much lately. The Euro, Navy, and Canadian Models are EXPLODING a MAJOR STORM into the NORTHEAST. The GFS MODEL as well turns Sandy toward the West, but much further North into Canada.
I just don't see Sandy hitting Florida or effecting any part of the ConUS. A very large trough should kick the tropical system out to the Central Atlantic after pounding the Bahamas very hard!
2 areas of Interest Invest 97L and 98L are now at a 50% chance of Development within the next 48hrs. Neither pose any threat much to the ConUs. But, Puerto Rico and the Domincan Republic and Bahamas could be some serious Weather from Invest 98L. It should move NNW as it develops!
The SHEAR has increased across nearly the entire Tropical Atlantic including the Gulf of Mexico. There are some small pockets of Shear below 20kts but not much. Models are still suggesting a Small Tropical Feature to develop in the Western Gulf of Mexico and head very quickly toward the Northern Gulf Coast States as far east as the Panhandle of Florida. This possibility appears to be on Sunday with the possibility of development. It should only be a rain maker with under 50kts of wind at the most in my opinion.
Also, Models also try to form a Tropical System in the very far Eastern Atlantic. Even if something forms the odds of it making it to any MainLand with the troughs that now continue is not likely. We will watch and see tho.
Also, Models also try to form a Tropical System in the very far Eastern Atlantic. Even if something forms the odds of it making it to any MainLand with the troughs that now continue is not likely. We will watch and see tho.
Is the Tropical Atlantic Season over.....HUM...getting very close as Shear has really taken over the MDR (Main Development Region)! Cold Fronts are getting more numerous now! The main areas to watch for development will be in the Western Caribbean and the BOC in the Gulf of Mexico. I would not say the season is over yet, but with the high shear things just can't develop.
Need to watch the SW Gulf of Mexico (BOC) as a twist seems to be trying to start on the tail end of the Cold front. This is a typical place to watch for development this time of year. Conditions are not all that favorable as Dry air is present but certainly not all that bad for something to form. Models are starting to see the same as my eyes are seeing.
Invest 92L has not improved much in organization late this evening. Again i don't expect 92L to be much until it reaches the Central Caribbean in a couple of days before some organizing will start to occur!
Invest 93L is NO concern as it is inland. It will bring some serious rains into the New Orleans area as FLOODING will be a problem. Invest 92L is about to enter the Caribbean soon. I don't look for this system to develop until it reaches the central Caribbean. With that assuming it does develop in the Central Caribbean, 92L still has the potential to become a Hurricane as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. The timing of a front will determine where 92L moves. This could be a very share right turning system when it runs into a front.
Well, here we go again. Invest 92L could become a very large Hurricane if the Intensity Forecast Models are correct. Everything will depend on the track of Invest 92L! If the system stays in the Caribbean and tracks South of the Dominican Republic and Haiti then the potential will be there for this thing to become a MAJOR HURRICANE! Need to watch the progress very Close!
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