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TAMPASPINS BLOG
I'm bringing back my blog!
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comments (1)
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Since so many blogs have disappeared, i thought i would bring this back! I know many will still follow on Facebook, but i will be able to give a more in depth analysis of models! I will need to get things set up for ease for me and those that are interested!
Thanks,
Tim
TROPICAL THREAT COMING FIRST OF JUNE POSSIBLY
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comments (4)
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TampaSpins TROPICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS
What is in the MODEL FORECAST:
The GFS and CMC MODELS are showing a system devloping coming out of the Carribean and moving over Cuba into the Bahamas. The CMC MODEL is very aggressive in showing a very strong Hurricane developing and moving toward the Carolina's! If you look at the MJO uplift forecast it shows a strong moisture surge this same time as well. Something we have to watch for sure. The EURO and Navy model hint at something, but currently show nothing developing!
THANKS,
Tim
Areas of Interest (AOI) from the National Hurricane Center
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)
2015 Named Storms:
Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda
TampaSpins Blog with
Graphic Analysis:
The blog section will have less graphics about each storm but, all will be referenced to the Tropical Weather Tab for more graphics.
Below are some links you might like for helping your own analysis:
USE my TAB at the top called TROPICAL MODELS to get pop ups views of all the MAJOR MODELS used or simply click the graphics below to get the most current Model Runs!
Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP! It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.
Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts
Right Click and Open a new Window!
MODEL ANALYSIS
GFS MODEL
ECMFW MODEL
CMC MODEL
NAVY MODEL
Sea Surface Temperatures or SST's 80 degrees Fer.
or 26.5 degrees Celcius is the Temperature needed for Tropical Development Normally!
Current Shear
Right click and open a new window to Loop!
Steering Layer 700-850mb or
1000mb pressure 45kts storms
Steering Layer 500-850mb or
990-999mb pressure 45-60kts storms
Steering Layer 400-850mb or
970-989mb/60-90kts storms
Steering Layer 300-850mb or
950-969mb pressure 90-112kts storms
Steering Layer 250-850mb or
940-949mb pressure 112-122kts storms
Steering Layer 200-700mb or
940mb pressure 122kts and larger storms
850mb Vorticity
700mb Vorticity
500mb Vorticity
200mb Vorticity
Upper Divergence
Lower Convergence
SAHARAN AIR LAYER
Data provided by National Data Buoy Center
Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!
SINCE YOU ARE READING THIS YOU ARE A MEMBER! DON'T FORGET TO USE THE INSTANT MESSENGER AND SIGN IN. ITS A QUICK WAY TO SEE WHO IS ONLINE FOR INTERACTION WITH OTHERS!
I really appreciate the great comments you all leave. I try to always reply back if you leave a question or a REQUEST. And please leave comments on the Blog good or bad as all are welcome.
Thank you all for visting my Blog,
Tim...
2015 TROPICAL SEASON FORECAST
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2015 TROPICAL SEASON FORECAST!
Here is my thoughts on the 2015 Atlantic Basin Tropical Outlook!
I am using my Rating System above under the Tab "Tropical Prediction Analysis" to rate each category as outlined and with reasoning to back each rating.
The Graphic directly below shows the Global trend with Hurricane Days for the Globe. Although this is in no way completely shows the exact graph for the Atlantic Days one can see that when following a low time it seldom goes straight to the top at a peak as it does not occur until a 2-3 year climb. So, i am lead to believe that this will likely be a slower than average season!
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES-3 rating
When looking at the Sea Surface Temperture Anomaly and the Ocean Heat Content grapic below the Caribbean the Gulf of Mexico is running above average while the MidAtlantic is running below normal for Tropical Development!
SHEAR-4 rating
Shear seems to be running about normal to slightly above normal. With the forecast of possible ElNino conditions, this would tend have Above normal Shear.
SAL-SAHARAN AIR LAYER-7 rating
This is very difficult to figure out the amount of Dry air and Dust that will be in the Atmosphere during the season. But, my best analogy on recent trends would lead me to believe that less dust is possible because the abundance of Rain in the African region! This would tend to produce less dust storms. Also current Dust seems below normal.
PRESSURE-4 rating
Again this is very hard to set a value but, most documents and findings indicate that the Atlantic as a whole is running slightly above average with current conditions. It is very difficult to project what the trend will be later but, to only base it on the current trend.
BERMUDA HIGH POSITION-7 rating
The Bermuda and Azores High is another very complicated item of focus to predict. But, based on what it should do in ElNino conditions and where it already is located i have to give this a higher than normal rating.
MJO-5 rating
Again another very difficult forecast focus. MJO is basically moisture in the Atmosphere that circles the globe about every 30-60 days. We will currently go into a higher MJO position so if 30-60 days out would tend to put us in another uplift position starting about July into August.
CAPE VERDE LOWS SPINNING-5 rating
One never knows on this other than current trends! The current trend has not seen strong spins coming off of Africa! Although last year the trend was not so strong rotation off of Africa. I will continue with that current trend in my rating.
LOCAL BREED-8 rating
With the current trend of warmer GOM SST's i am giving this a Higher than normal rating. Again very hard to tell but, with the above Average SST's currently it would be very hard to give this a below average rating.
HISTORY TENDENCY from ESNO-3 rating
I have given this a very low rating based totally on the trend over the last several Years from ElNino conditions.
VOLCANIC RELEASE-5 rating
I have given this an average rating. I have based this on the amount of release from Valcano erupting in the Northern Atlantic. This has to play some effect with the season in my opininon. Although this may not be very significant, what little has been released into the Stratosphere could deflect some sun light and cause some cooling as some of the dust one would think has drifted into the Lower Atlantic.
Summary:
Based on my rating system and plugging the numbers together, my best estimate for the 2015 Atlantic Basin Tropical Outlook is for:
72% chance of Below Average Conditions leading to
7 Named storms--the average is 9.6
4 Hurricanes--the average is 5.9
2 Major Hurricanes--the average is 2.3
I will enjoy hearing the debates of my thoughts and keep in mind these trends can change!
Thanks,
Tim
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE OHIO AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS
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TampaSpins SEVERE WEATHER ANALYSIS
The Threat of some severe weather today will extend from TEXAS into the OHIO RIVER VALLEY into the GREAT LAKES. Texas and Oklahoma might get a little reprive from rain as only 3" is in the forecast for the next 7 days! Keep your ears near a weather radio and your eyes to the skies!
Don't forget to Right Click and open a new window!
 | Tornado Warning |
 | Tornado Watch |
 | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
 | Severe Thunderstorm Watch |
 | Winter Weather Statement |
 | High Wind Advisory |
 | Flood Warning |
 | Flood Watch / Flood Statement |
 | Hurricane Local Statement |
 | Heat Advisory |
 | Dense Fog Advisory |
 | Fire Weather Advisory |
 | Hurricane Watch |
 | Hurricane Warning |
 | Tropical Storm Watch |
 | Tropical Storm Warning |
Today's U.S. Convective Outlook
Tomorrow's U.S. Convective Outlook
Day Three's U.S. Convective Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
River Flooding Map.....RIGHT Click OPEN A NEW WINDOW to Zoom....
MAJOR FLOODING
MODERATE FLOODING
MINOR FLOODING
NEAR FLOOD STAGE
NO FLOODING
Below is a 24hour Temperature Map!
Below is a 48hour Temperature Map!
Below is a 72hour Temperature Map!
CURRENT JET STREAM
NAM 60 Hour Temperature Forecast Loop
Below is 24hour Precipiation Map!
Below is 48hour Precipiation Map!
Below is a 72hr Precipiation Map!
Don't forget to Right Click and open a new window!
Tropical 10 days are quite!
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comments (2)
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TampaSpins TROPICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS
What is in the MODEL FORECAST:
Models are VERY quite with nothing on the models for the next 10 days! Shear continues to be high with rather high pressure in place in the Tropics!
THANKS,
Tim
Areas of Interest (AOI) from the National Hurricane Center
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)
2015 Named Storms:
Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda
TampaSpins Blog with
Graphic Analysis:
The blog section will have less graphics about each storm but, all will be referenced to the Tropical Weather Tab for more graphics.
Below are some links you might like for helping your own analysis:
USE my TAB at the top called TROPICAL MODELS to get pop ups views of all the MAJOR MODELS used or simply click the graphics below to get the most current Model Runs!
Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP! It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.
Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts
Right Click and Open a new Window!
MODEL ANALYSIS
GFS MODEL
ECMFW MODEL
CMC MODEL
NAVY MODEL
Sea Surface Temperatures or SST's 80 degrees Fer.
or 26.5 degrees Celcius is the Temperature needed for Tropical Development Normally!
Current Shear
Right click and open a new window to Loop!
Steering Layer 700-850mb or
1000mb pressure 45kts storms
Steering Layer 500-850mb or
990-999mb pressure 45-60kts storms
Steering Layer 400-850mb or
970-989mb/60-90kts storms
Steering Layer 300-850mb or
950-969mb pressure 90-112kts storms
Steering Layer 250-850mb or
940-949mb pressure 112-122kts storms
Steering Layer 200-700mb or
940mb pressure 122kts and larger storms
925mb Vorticity
850mb Vorticity
700mb Vorticity
500mb Vorticity
200mb Vorticity
Upper Divergence
Lower Convergence
SAHARAN AIR LAYER
Data provided by National Data Buoy Center
NAM MODEL
Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!
SINCE YOU ARE READING THIS YOU ARE A MEMBER! DON'T FORGET TO USE THE INSTANT MESSENGER AND SIGN IN. ITS A QUICK WAY TO SEE WHO IS ONLINE FOR INTERACTION WITH OTHERS!
I really appreciate the great comments you all leave. I try to always reply back if you leave a question or a REQUEST. And please leave comments on the Blog good or bad as all are welcome.
Thank you all for visting my Blog,
Tim...
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
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TampaSpins TROPICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS
What is in the MODEL FORECAST:
Models are in fairly good agreement that a TROPICAL STORM will develop in the SW Gulf of Mexico caused by a stalled cold front and INVEST 92E in the Pacific that will likely cross Mexico and move into the BOC in the Gulf of Mexico. Every model currently shows this occuring. What happens from there is uncertain as for as how strong and where it goes. Currently most models move it in the general direction toward Florida. I won't go there as i only try to tell you what the models are showing. Intensity beyond 72 hours is impossible to forecast because of Shear. Shear is currently forecasted by models not all favorable but not all that unfavorable either. WE will likely see some Circulation starting in the BOC in about 3-4 days or SUNDAY/MONDAY! I only tell you what the models say and i as all can change over the next few days!
THANKS,
Tim
Areas of Interest (AOI) from the National Hurricane Center
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)
2014 Named Storms:
Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
TampaSpins Blog with
Graphic Analysis:
The blog section will have less graphics about each storm but, all will be referenced to the Tropical Weather Tab for more graphics.
Below are some links you might like for helping your own analysis:
USE my TAB at the top called TROPICAL MODELS to get pop ups views of all the MAJOR MODELS used or simply click the graphics below to get the most current Model Runs!
Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP! It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.
Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts
Right Click and Open a new Window!
MODEL ANALYSIS
GFS MODEL
ECMFW MODEL
CMC MODEL
NAVY MODEL
Sea Surface Temperatures or SST's 80 degrees Fer.
or 26.5 degrees Celcius is the Temperature needed for Tropical Development Normally!
Current Shear
Right click and open a new window to Loop!
Steering Layer 700-850mb or
1000mb pressure 45kts storms
Steering Layer 500-850mb or
990-999mb pressure 45-60kts storms
Steering Layer 400-850mb or
970-989mb/60-90kts storms
Steering Layer 300-850mb or
950-969mb pressure 90-112kts storms
Steering Layer 250-850mb or
940-949mb pressure 112-122kts storms
Steering Layer 200-700mb or
940mb pressure 122kts and larger storms
850mb Vorticity
Upper Divergence
Lower Convergence
Data provided by National Data Buoy Center
Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!
SINCE YOU ARE READING THIS YOU ARE A MEMBER! DON'T FORGET TO USE THE INSTANT MESSENGER AND SIGN IN. ITS A QUICK WAY TO SEE WHO IS ONLINE FOR INTERACTION WITH OTHERS!
I really appreciate the great comments you all leave. I try to always reply back if you leave a question or a REQUEST. And please leave comments on the Blog good or bad as all are welcome.
Thank you all for visting my Blog,
Tim...
NOTHING IN THE TROPICS 10-2-14
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TampaSpins TROPICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS
What is in the MODEL FORECAST:
Models currently are not showing anything of major concern over the next 5 days! However the GFS Model and NAVY Model show a Tropical wave moving from the Atlantic into the Caribbean in about 7 days. The GFS Model has been on and off developing this wave. There is a Cold front that will move very far south into the Gulf of Mexico and really shut down much of the Tropical Development chances for a while. Keep in mind that many Tropical systems develop on the tail ends of stalled cold fronts. Something to watch down the road, but again NOTHING to worry in the Tropics. The NHC does have Invest 97L and 98L.....I am not going to even post any graphics on these as they are completely of non interest and probably did not even warrent an Invest declared.
THANKS,
Tim
Areas of Interest (AOI) from the National Hurricane Center
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)
2014 Named Storms:
Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
TampaSpins Blog with
Graphic Analysis:
The blog section will have less graphics about each storm but, all will be referenced to the Tropical Weather Tab for more graphics.
Below are some links you might like for helping your own analysis:
USE my TAB at the top called TROPICAL MODELS to get pop ups views of all the MAJOR MODELS used or simply click the graphics below to get the most current Model Runs!
Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP! It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.
Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts
Right Click and Open a new Window!
MODEL ANALYSIS
GFS MODEL
ECMFW MODEL
CMC MODEL
NAVY MODEL
Sea Surface Temperatures or SST's 80 degrees Fer.
or 26.5 degrees Celcius is the Temperature needed for Tropical Development Normally!
Current Shear
Right click and open a new window to Loop!
Steering Layer 700-850mb or
1000mb pressure 45kts storms
Steering Layer 500-850mb or
990-999mb pressure 45-60kts storms
Steering Layer 400-850mb or
970-989mb/60-90kts storms
Steering Layer 300-850mb or
950-969mb pressure 90-112kts storms
Steering Layer 250-850mb or
940-949mb pressure 112-122kts storms
Steering Layer 200-700mb or
940mb pressure 122kts and larger storms
925mb Vorticity
850mb Vorticity
700mb Vorticity
500mb Vorticity
200mb Vorticity
Upper Divergence
Lower Convergence
SAHARAN AIR LAYER
Data provided by National Data Buoy Center
NAM MODEL
Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!
SINCE YOU ARE READING THIS YOU ARE A MEMBER! DON'T FORGET TO USE THE INSTANT MESSENGER AND SIGN IN. ITS A QUICK WAY TO SEE WHO IS ONLINE FOR INTERACTION WITH OTHERS!
I really appreciate the great comments you all leave. I try to always reply back if you leave a question or a REQUEST. And please leave comments on the Blog good or bad as all are welcome.
Thank you all for visting my Blog,
Tim...
DAILY HEADLINES AND NEWS EVENTS
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
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TampaSpins SEVERE WEATHER ANALYSIS
The Threat of some severe weather will start Wednesday 10-1 thru Friday 10-3 from the plains into the Ohio Valley! This is all due to an area of LOW pressure which will bring some very Cold air out of Canada and hit a mass of warm high due point air. The shear caused the the counter clock wise rotation will be enough to cause some tornados thru the time line. Keep your ears near a weather radio and your eyes to the skies!
Don't forget to Right Click and open a new window!
| Tornado Warning |
| Tornado Watch |
| Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Severe Thunderstorm Watch |
| Winter Weather Statement |
| High Wind Advisory |
| Flood Warning |
| Flood Watch / Flood Statement |
| Hurricane Local Statement |
| Heat Advisory |
| Dense Fog Advisory |
| Fire Weather Advisory |
| Hurricane Watch |
| Hurricane Warning |
| Tropical Storm Watch |
| Tropical Storm Warning |
Today's U.S. Convective Outlook
Tomorrow's U.S. Convective Outlook
Day Three's U.S. Convective Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
River Flooding Map.....RIGHT Click OPEN A NEW WINDOW to Zoom....
MAJOR FLOODING
MODERATE FLOODING
MINOR FLOODING
NEAR FLOOD STAGE
NO FLOODING
Below is a 24hour Temperature Map!
Below is a 48hour Temperature Map!
Below is a 72hour Temperature Map!
CURRENT JET STREAM
NAM 60 Hour Temperature Forecast Loop
Day 1 Snowfall Forecast
Day 2 Snowfall Forecast
Day 3 Snowfall Forecast
Below is 24hour Precipiation Map!
Below is 48hour Precipiation Map!
Below is a 72hr Precipiation Map!
GFS 00z/12z Model Forecast (10:30 am and 10:30pm)
Total Accumulated Snowfall (Out To 5 Days)
Right Click and open a new window to zoom.....
GFS 06z/18z Model Forecast (5:30am and 5:30pm)
Total Accumulated Snowfall (Out To 5 Days)
Right Click and open a new window to zoom.....
NAM Model Forecast (00 and 12Z)
(available beginning T+2:45HR) 11:45am and 11:45pm
Total Accumulated Snowfall (Out To 3 1/2 Days)
Right Click and open a new window to zoom.....
NAM Model Forecast (06 and 18Z)
(available beginning T+2HR) 5:00am and 5:00pm
Total Accumulated Snowfall (Out To 3 1/2 Days)
Right Click and open a new window to zoom.....
Don't forget to Right Click and open a new window!
TROUBLE AHEAD
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comments (4)
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TampaSpins TROPICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS
What is in the MODEL FORECAST:
The Models are hinting at something that might be a real possibility. The EURO model and the GFS model both are showing a Tropical System developing in the GULF OF MEXICO and moving across Florida as a Cold front approaches. Models show something developing in about 8-10 days or about September 26th. We have not seen this often where we have both the major models agreeing this far out that something will develop. We need to watch this very closely to see if this trend continues!!! JUST something to watch.
Elsewhere, we will see some MAJOR FLASH FLOODING again from the WEST caused by Hurricane Odile. The impact into Arizona could be as bad if not worst than last week!
THANKS,
Tim
Areas of Interest (AOI) from the National Hurricane Center
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)
2014 Named Storms:
Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
TampaSpins Blog with
Graphic Analysis:
The blog section will have less graphics about each storm but, all will be referenced to the Tropical Weather Tab for more graphics.
Below are some links you might like for helping your own analysis:
USE my TAB at the top called TROPICAL MODELS to get pop ups views of all the MAJOR MODELS used!
Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP! It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.
Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts
Right Click and Open a new Window!
MODEL ANALYSIS
GFS MODEL
ECMFW MODEL
CMC MODEL
NAVY MODEL
Sea Surface Temperatures or SST's 80 degrees Fer.
or 26.5 degrees Celcius is the Temperature needed for Tropical Development Normally!
Current Shear
Right click and open a new window to Loop!
Steering Layer 700-850mb or
1000mb pressure 45kts storms
Steering Layer 500-850mb or
990-999mb pressure 45-60kts storms
Steering Layer 400-850mb or
970-989mb/60-90kts storms
Steering Layer 300-850mb or
950-969mb pressure 90-112kts storms
Steering Layer 250-850mb or
940-949mb pressure 112-122kts storms
Steering Layer 200-700mb or
940mb pressure 122kts and larger storms
925mb Vorticity
850mb Vorticity
700mb Vorticity
500mb Vorticity
200mb Vorticity
Upper Divergence
Lower Convergence
SAHARAN AIR LAYER
Data provided by National Data Buoy Center
NAM MODEL
Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!
SINCE YOU ARE READING THIS YOU ARE A MEMBER! DON'T FORGET TO USE THE INSTANT MESSENGER AND SIGN IN. ITS A QUICK WAY TO SEE WHO IS ONLINE FOR INTERACTION WITH OTHERS!
I really appreciate the great comments you all leave. I try to always reply back if you leave a question or a REQUEST. And please leave comments on the Blog good or bad as all are welcome.
Thank you all for visting my Blog,
Tim...
MAJOR PROBLEMS AHEAD
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comments (2)
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TampaSpins TROPICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS
What is in the MODEL FORECAST:
The Models are hinting at something that might be a real possibility. We need not be reminded what happened on the Jersey Shores, but the Models are hinting at a storm taking a similar path that gets going off the Florida/Georgia Coastline and then moves into the NORTHEAST becoming very strong by some Models such as the CMC. Yea, i know the CMC can over do storms, but the other models are hinting at some development as well. This is all about 8-10 out if anything was to occur. JUST something to watch.
Elsewhere, we will see some MAJOR FLASH FLOODING again from the WEST caused by Hurricane Odile. The impact into Arizona could be as bad if not worst than last week!
THANKS,
Tim
Areas of Interest (AOI) from the National Hurricane Center
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)
2014 Named Storms:
Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
TampaSpins Blog with
Graphic Analysis:
The blog section will have less graphics about each storm but, all will be referenced to the Tropical Weather Tab for more graphics.
Below are some links you might like for helping your own analysis:
USE my TAB at the top called TROPICAL MODELS to get pop ups views of all the MAJOR MODELS used!
Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP! It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.
Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts
Right Click and Open a new Window!
MODEL ANALYSIS
GFS MODEL
ECMFW MODEL
CMC MODEL
NAVY MODEL
Sea Surface Temperatures or SST's 80 degrees Fer.
or 26.5 degrees Celcius is the Temperature needed for Tropical Development Normally!
Current Shear
Right click and open a new window to Loop!
Steering Layer 700-850mb or
1000mb pressure 45kts storms
Steering Layer 500-850mb or
990-999mb pressure 45-60kts storms
Steering Layer 400-850mb or
970-989mb/60-90kts storms
Steering Layer 300-850mb or
950-969mb pressure 90-112kts storms
Steering Layer 250-850mb or
940-949mb pressure 112-122kts storms
Steering Layer 200-700mb or
940mb pressure 122kts and larger storms
925mb Vorticity
850mb Vorticity
700mb Vorticity
500mb Vorticity
200mb Vorticity
Upper Divergence
Lower Convergence
SAHARAN AIR LAYER
Data provided by National Data Buoy Center
NAM MODEL
Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!
SINCE YOU ARE READING THIS YOU ARE A MEMBER! DON'T FORGET TO USE THE INSTANT MESSENGER AND SIGN IN. ITS A QUICK WAY TO SEE WHO IS ONLINE FOR INTERACTION WITH OTHERS!
I really appreciate the great comments you all leave. I try to always reply back if you leave a question or a REQUEST. And please leave comments on the Blog good or bad as all are welcome.
Thank you all for visting my Blog,
Tim...
Tropical Update
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comments (0)
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TampaSpins TROPICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS
What is in the MODEL FORECAST:
The Models are hinting at something that might be a real possibility. We need not be reminded what happened on the Jersey Shores, but the Models are hinting at a storm taking a similar path that gets going off the Florida/Georgia Coastline and then moves into the NORTHEAST becoming very strong by some Models such as the CMC. Yea, i know the CMC can over do storms, but the other models are hinting at some development as well. This is all about 8-10 out if anything was to occur. JUST something to watch.
Elsewhere, we will see some MAJOR FLASH FLOODING again from the WEST caused by Hurricane Odile. The impact into Arizona could be as bad if not worst than last week!
THANKS,
Tim
Areas of Interest (AOI) from the National Hurricane Center
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)
2014 Named Storms:
Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
TampaSpins Blog with
Graphic Analysis:
The blog section will have less graphics about each storm but, all will be referenced to the Tropical Weather Tab for more graphics.
Below are some links you might like for helping your own analysis:
USE my TAB at the top called TROPICAL MODELS to get pop ups views of all the MAJOR MODELS used!
Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP! It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.
Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts
Right Click and Open a new Window!
MODEL ANALYSIS
GFS MODEL
ECMFW MODEL
CMC MODEL
NAVY MODEL
Sea Surface Temperatures or SST's 80 degrees Fer.
or 26.5 degrees Celcius is the Temperature needed for Tropical Development Normally!
Current Shear
Right click and open a new window to Loop!
Steering Layer 700-850mb or
1000mb pressure 45kts storms
Steering Layer 500-850mb or
990-999mb pressure 45-60kts storms
Steering Layer 400-850mb or
970-989mb/60-90kts storms
Steering Layer 300-850mb or
950-969mb pressure 90-112kts storms
Steering Layer 250-850mb or
940-949mb pressure 112-122kts storms
Steering Layer 200-700mb or
940mb pressure 122kts and larger storms
925mb Vorticity
850mb Vorticity
700mb Vorticity
500mb Vorticity
200mb Vorticity
Upper Divergence
Lower Convergence
SAHARAN AIR LAYER
Data provided by National Data Buoy Center
NAM MODEL
Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!
SINCE YOU ARE READING THIS YOU ARE A MEMBER! DON'T FORGET TO USE THE INSTANT MESSENGER AND SIGN IN. ITS A QUICK WAY TO SEE WHO IS ONLINE FOR INTERACTION WITH OTHERS!
I really appreciate the great comments you all leave. I try to always reply back if you leave a question or a REQUEST. And please leave comments on the Blog good or bad as all are welcome.
Thank you all for visting my Blog,
Tim...
TROPICAL UPDATE 9-10-14
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comments (0)
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TampaSpins TROPICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS
What is in the MODEL FORECAST:
Nothing in the tropics is expected over the next 7 days as all the models show nothing developing except the CMC model shows some small develpment from a spin in the ITZ. It is only brief until it hits higher shear and goes poof.....gone! Models do show Shear easing some in the Central Atlantic, but continues higher shear in the Caribbean. SHEAR is just to strong....NOTHING can develop. Until the Shear drops to below 20kts NOTHING will develop.
THANKS,
Tim
Areas of Interest (AOI) from the National Hurricane Center
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)
2014 Named Storms:
Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
TampaSpins Blog with
Graphic Analysis:
The blog section will have less graphics about each storm but, all will be referenced to the Tropical Weather Tab for more graphics.
Below are some links you might like for helping your own analysis:
USE my TAB at the top called TROPICAL MODELS to get pop ups views of all the MAJOR MODELS used!
Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP! It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.
Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts
Right Click and Open a new Window!
MODEL ANALYSIS
GFS MODEL
ECMFW MODEL
CMC MODEL
NAVY MODEL
Sea Surface Temperatures or SST's 80 degrees Fer.
or 26.5 degrees Celcius is the Temperature needed for Tropical Development Normally!
Current Shear
Right click and open a new window to Loop!
Steering Layer 700-850mb or
1000mb pressure 45kts storms
Steering Layer 500-850mb or
990-999mb pressure 45-60kts storms
Steering Layer 400-850mb or
970-989mb/60-90kts storms
Steering Layer 300-850mb or
950-969mb pressure 90-112kts storms
Steering Layer 250-850mb or
940-949mb pressure 112-122kts storms
Steering Layer 200-700mb or
940mb pressure 122kts and larger storms
925mb Vorticity
850mb Vorticity
700mb Vorticity
500mb Vorticity
200mb Vorticity
Upper Divergence
Lower Convergence
SAHARAN AIR LAYER
Data provided by National Data Buoy Center
NAM MODEL
Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!
SINCE YOU ARE READING THIS YOU ARE A MEMBER! DON'T FORGET TO USE THE INSTANT MESSENGER AND SIGN IN. ITS A QUICK WAY TO SEE WHO IS ONLINE FOR INTERACTION WITH OTHERS!
I really appreciate the great comments you all leave. I try to always reply back if you leave a question or a REQUEST. And please leave comments on the Blog good or bad as all are welcome.
Thank you all for visting my Blog,
Tim...
Quite Tropics 7-18-14
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comments (0)
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TampaSpins TROPICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS
What is in the MODEL FORECAST:
Nothing in the tropics is expected over the next 7 days as all the models show nothing developing. SHEAR is so strong...NOTHING can develop. Until the Shear drops to below 20kts NOTHING will develop.
THANKS,
Tim
Areas of Interest (AOI) from the National Hurricane Center
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)
2014 Named Storms:
Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
TampaSpins Blog with
Graphic Analysis:
The blog section will have less graphics about each storm but, all will be referenced to the Tropical Weather Tab for more graphics.
Below are some links you might like for helping your own analysis:
USE my TAB at the top called TROPICAL MODELS to get pop ups views of all the MAJOR MODELS used!
Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP! It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.
Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts
Right Click and Open a new Window!
MODEL ANALYSIS
GFS MODEL
ECMFW MODEL
CMC MODEL
NAVY MODEL
Sea Surface Temperatures or SST's 80 degrees Fer.
or 26.5 degrees Celcius is the Temperature needed for Tropical Development Normally!
Current Shear
Right click and open a new window to Loop!
Steering Layer 700-850mb or
1000mb pressure 45kts storms
Steering Layer 500-850mb or
990-999mb pressure 45-60kts storms
Steering Layer 400-850mb or
970-989mb/60-90kts storms
Steering Layer 300-850mb or
950-969mb pressure 90-112kts storms
Steering Layer 250-850mb or
940-949mb pressure 112-122kts storms
Steering Layer 200-700mb or
940mb pressure 122kts and larger storms
925mb Vorticity
850mb Vorticity
700mb Vorticity
500mb Vorticity
200mb Vorticity
Upper Divergence
Lower Convergence
SAHARAN AIR LAYER
Data provided by National Data Buoy Center
NAM MODEL
Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!
SINCE YOU ARE READING THIS YOU ARE A MEMBER! DON'T FORGET TO USE THE INSTANT MESSENGER AND SIGN IN. ITS A QUICK WAY TO SEE WHO IS ONLINE FOR INTERACTION WITH OTHERS!
I really appreciate the great comments you all leave. I try to always reply back if you leave a question or a REQUEST. And please leave comments on the Blog good or bad as all are welcome.
Thank you all for visting my Blog,
Tim...
TROPICAL UPDATE 7-1-14
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comments (9)
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TampaSpins TROPICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS
Areas of Interest (AOI) from the National Hurricane Center
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)
2014 Named Storms:
Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
TampaSpins Blog with
Graphic Analysis:
The blog section will have less graphics about each storm but, all will be referenced to the Tropical Weather Tab for more graphics.
Below are some links you might like for helping your own analysis:
USE my TAB at the top called TROPICAL MODELS to get pop ups views of all the MAJOR MODELS used!
Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP! It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.
Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts
Right Click and Open a new Window!
MODEL ANALYSIS
GFS MODEL
ECMFW MODEL
CMC MODEL
NAVY MODEL
Sea Surface Temperatures or SST's 80 degrees Fer.
or 26.5 degrees Celcius is the Temperature needed for Tropical Development Normally!
Current Shear
Right click and open a new window to Loop!
Steering Layer 700-850mb or
1000mb pressure 45kts storms
Steering Layer 500-850mb or
990-999mb pressure 45-60kts storms
Steering Layer 400-850mb or
970-989mb/60-90kts storms
Steering Layer 300-850mb or
950-969mb pressure 90-112kts storms
Steering Layer 250-850mb or
940-949mb pressure 112-122kts storms
Steering Layer 200-700mb or
940mb pressure 122kts and larger storms
925mb Vorticity
850mb Vorticity
700mb Vorticity
500mb Vorticity
200mb Vorticity
Upper Divergence
Lower Convergence
SAHARAN AIR LAYER
Data provided by National Data Buoy Center
NAM MODEL
Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!
SINCE YOU ARE READING THIS YOU ARE A MEMBER! DON'T FORGET TO USE THE INSTANT MESSENGER AND SIGN IN. ITS A QUICK WAY TO SEE WHO IS ONLINE FOR INTERACTION WITH OTHERS!
I really appreciate the great comments you all leave. I try to always reply back if you leave a question or a REQUEST. And please leave comments on the Blog good or bad as all are welcome.
Thank you all for visting my Blog,
Tim...
TampaSpins Tropical Update
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comments (37)
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TampaSpins TROPICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS
READ MY COMMENTS AND OTHERS FOR UPDATES ON THE TROPICS. PLEASE LEAVE A COMMENT!
Areas of Interest (AOI) from the National Hurricane Center
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)
Sea Surface Temperatures or SST's 80 degrees Fer.
or 26.5 degrees Celcius is the Temperature needed for Tropical Development Normally!
IR Shortwave Image - Java - Flash
IR Funktop Image - Java - Flash
IR Rainbow Image - Java - Flash
Water Vapor Image - Java - Flash
2014 Named Storms:
Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
TampaSpins Blog
Graphic Analysis:
The blog section will have less graphics about each storm but, all will be referenced to the Tropical Weather Tab for more graphics.
Below are some links you might like for helping your own analysis:
SHORT RANGE Computer models
Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP! It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.
Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts
Right Click and Open a new Window!
Current Shear
Right click and open a new window to Loop!
Steering Layer 700-850mb or
1000mb pressure 45kts storms
Steering Layer 500-850mb or
990-999mb pressure 45-60kts storms
Steering Layer 400-850mb or
970-989mb/60-90kts storms
Steering Layer 300-850mb or
950-969mb pressure 90-112kts storms
Steering Layer 250-850mb or
940-949mb pressure 112-122kts storms
Steering Layer 200-700mb or
940mb pressure 122kts and larger storms
850mb Vorticity
700mb Vorticity
500mb Vorticity
200mb Vorticity
Upper Divergence
Lower Convergence
SAHARAN AIR LAYER
Data provided by National Data Buoy Center
NAM MODEL
Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!
SINCE YOU ARE READING THIS YOU ARE A MEMBER! DON'T FORGET TO USE THE INSTANT MESSENGER AND SIGN IN. ITS A QUICK WAY TO SEE WHO IS ONLINE FOR INTERACTION WITH OTHERS!
I really appreciate the great comments you all leave. I try to always reply back if you leave a question or a REQUEST. And please leave comments on the Blog good or bad as all are welcome.
Thank you all for visting my Blog,
Tim...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT coming THURSDAY!
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TampaSpins SEVERE WEATHER ANALYSIS
Don't forget to Right Click and open a new window!
| Tornado Warning |
| Tornado Watch |
| Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Severe Thunderstorm Watch |
| Winter Weather Statement |
| High Wind Advisory |
| Flood Warning |
| Flood Watch / Flood Statement |
| Hurricane Local Statement |
| Heat Advisory |
| Dense Fog Advisory |
| Fire Weather Advisory |
| Hurricane Watch |
| Hurricane Warning |
| Tropical Storm Watch |
| Tropical Storm Warning |
Today's U.S. Convective Outlook
Tomorrow's U.S. Convective Outlook
Day Three's U.S. Convective Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
River Flooding Map.....RIGHT Click OPEN A NEW WINDOW to Zoom....
MAJOR FLOODING
MODERATE FLOODING
MINOR FLOODING
NEAR FLOOD STAGE
NO FLOODING
Below is a 24hour Temperature Map!
Below is a 48hour Temperature Map!
Below is a 72hour Temperature Map!
CURRENT JET STREAM
NAM 60 Hour Temperature Forecast Loop
Day 1 Snowfall Forecast
Day 2 Snowfall Forecast
Day 3 Snowfall Forecast
Below is 24hour Precipiation Map!
Below is 48hour Precipiation Map!
Below is a 72hr Precipiation Map!
GFS 00z/12z Model Forecast (10:30 am and 10:30pm)
Total Accumulated Snowfall (Out To 5 Days)
Right Click and open a new window to zoom.....
GFS 06z/18z Model Forecast (5:30am and 5:30pm)
Total Accumulated Snowfall (Out To 5 Days)
Right Click and open a new window to zoom.....
NAM Model Forecast (00 and 12Z)
(available beginning T+2:45HR) 11:45am and 11:45pm
Total Accumulated Snowfall (Out To 3 1/2 Days)
Right Click and open a new window to zoom.....
NAM Model Forecast (06 and 18Z)
(available beginning T+2HR) 5:00am and 5:00pm
Total Accumulated Snowfall (Out To 3 1/2 Days)
Right Click and open a new window to zoom.....
Don't forget to Right Click and open a new window!
KENTUCKY SNOW STORM
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**MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR KENTUCKY NAM MODEL SHOWING**
The NAM MODEL has came out with KENTUCKY getting rocked with about 17" of snow! thru Tuesday!
https://scontent-b-atl.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc3/t1/1508067_712952002072527_2118304459_n.png
Just to confirm....the GFS MODEL is showing much the same!
https://scontent-a-atl.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn2/t1/1779891_712957278738666_408420848_n.png
Keep in mind we still have a Tuesday and Wednesday Storm to deal with along with a Weekend Winter Storm that is showing signs of being rather large event possibly!
**BLIZZARD ALERT**
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**MAJOR WINTER STORM COMING**
We have currently 2 different solutions by models. Currently the GFS Model takes a Surface Low more off the Coast and out to Sea while the very reliable European Model moves a Surface Low up the East Coast BOMBING OUT in VERY VERY COLD AIR! If the EURO is correct, we will have an amazing BLIZZARD in the Northeast including possibly the New York City area on Thursday and Friday into the Weekend. We need to watch the next few runs of the GFS Model to see if this model follows the EURO, if so...OH MY! Below is the EURO MODEL CURRENT RUN!
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/ECMWF/00/US/ecmwfUS_850_temp_120.gif
TROPICAL Computer Model Analysis
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comments (1)
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TampaSpins TROPICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS
READ MY COMMENTS AND OTHERS FOR UPDATES ON THE TROPICS. PLEASE LEAVE A COMMENT!
Areas of Interest (AOI) from the National Hurricane Center
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)
Sea Surface Temperatures or SST's 80 degrees Fer.
or 26.5 degrees Celcius is the Temperature needed for Tropical Development Normally!
IR Shortwave Image - Java - Flash
IR Funktop Image - Java - Flash
IR Rainbow Image - Java - Flash
Water Vapor Image - Java - Flash
2014 Named Storms:
Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
TampaSpins Blog
Tropical Analysis:
The blog section will have less graphics about each storm but, all will be referenced to the Tropical Weather Tab for more graphics.
Below are some links you might like for helping your own analysis:
SHORT RANGE Computer models from Florida State
Long Range Computer models from Penn State
Here is a link to to my Tab with WEATHER LINKS! This will give you everything you need in one spot!
Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP! It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.
Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts
Right Click and Open a new Window!
MODELS ANALYZED
GFS MODEL
CMC MODEL
NAVGEM MODEL
ECMWF MODEL
Right click and open a new window to Loop!
Current Shear
Steering Layer 700-850mb or
1000mb pressure 45kts storms
Steering Layer 500-850mb or
990-999mb pressure 45-60kts storms
Steering Layer 400-850mb or
970-989mb/60-90kts storms
Steering Layer 300-850mb or
950-969mb pressure 90-112kts storms
Steering Layer 250-850mb or
940-949mb pressure 112-122kts storms
Steering Layer 200-700mb or
940mb pressure 122kts and larger storms
850mb Vorticity
700mb Vorticity
500mb Vorticity
200mb Vorticity
Upper Divergence
Lower Convergence
SAHARAN AIR LAYER
Data provided by National Data Buoy Center
NAM MODEL
Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!
SINCE YOU ARE READING THIS YOU ARE A MEMBER! DON'T FORGET TO USE THE INSTANT MESSENGER AND SIGN IN. ITS A QUICK WAY TO SEE WHO IS ONLINE FOR INTERACTION WITH OTHERS!
I really appreciate the great comments you all leave. I try to always reply back if you leave a question or a REQUEST. And please leave comments on the Blog good or bad as all are welcome.
Thank you all for visting my Blog,
Tim...
