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TROPICAL WEATHER

2022 TROPICAL NAMES

AlexHermineOwen
BonnieIdaliaPhillippe
ColinJoseRina
DanielleKarlShary
EarlLisaTammy
FionaMartinVirginie
GastonNicoleWalter

 

CategorySustained WindsTypes of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds
174-95 mph
64-82 kt
119-153 km/h
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
296-110 mph
83-95 kt
154-177 km/h
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
3
(major)
111-129 mph
96-112 kt
178-208 km/h
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
4
(major)
130-156 mph
113-136 kt
209-251 km/h
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
5
(major)
157 mph or higher
137 kt or higher
252 km/h or higher
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of

Mexico 

Updated at 2 and 8 from the

National Hurricane Center:

Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)


Tropical Weather Discussion
  

 

This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT

from June 1 to November 30.

Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.


NOAA 48-hr TC Formation Probability

Tropical Cyclone Formation Chances Within 48 Hours

00Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours  0-120 Hours  120-240 Hours  Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours  0-120 Hours  120-240 Hours  12Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours  0-120 Hours  120-240 Hours  Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours  0-120 Hours  120-240 Hours 



 

 

MJO OLR FORECAST 

EWP forecast of 200-hpa Velocity Potential

 

Tropical Models

  

SHORT RANGE Computer Models

 

NCEP/EMC Tracking of Cyclogenesis in Models

Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

Click and Open a new Window!

  

GFS MODEL, CMC MODEL,

 ECMWF MODEL, &

NAVY MODEL

CLICK THE LINKS BELOW TO VIEW AND OPEN to LOOP!


GFS MODEL

 

ECMFW OPERATIONAL MODEL


ECMFW MEANS MODEL


CMC MODEL


NAVY MODEL


                         OTHER TROPICAL  GRAPHICS and ANALYSIS

Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP!  It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.   

Sea Surface Temperatures or SST's

80 degrees Fer. or 26.5 degrees Celsius is the Temperature 

needed for Tropical Development Normally!


 Atlantic
Sea Surface Temps
Sea Surface Temps
Gulf Of Mexico
Sea Surface Temps
North Atlantic
Sea Surface Temps
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly
Sea Surface Temperature Analomy



 Maximum Potential 
Hurricane Intensity LINK


Wind Shear

Current Shear
24hr Shear Tendency - North Atlantic - Latest Available

 

 

24hr Shear Tendency - North Atlantic - 6 Hours Previous 


Vertical Wind Shear
Vertical Wind Shear
Vertical Wind Shear

 

Shear Map Click LINK to open a new window to loop.....

GFS Shear

 

 CMC Shear


 Navy Shear 

 

 

Steering Layer 700-850mb or

1000mb pressure 45kts storms

Steering Layer 500-850mb or

990-999mb pressure 45-60kts storms

Steering Layer 400-850mb or

970-989mb/60-90kts storms

Steering Layer 300-850mb or

950-969mb pressure 90-112kts storms

Steering Layer 250-850mb or

940-949mb pressure 112-122kts storms

Steering Layer 200-700mb or

940mb pressure 122kts and larger storms

925mb Vorticity



850mb Vorticity

700mb Vorticity

 500mb Vorticity

200mb Vorticity

 

Upper Divergence

Lower Convergence

 


 

Right Click (open a new window)

NATIONAL DATA BOUY CAMS

Data provided by National Data Buoy Center

NATIONAL DATA BOUYS

Right Click and Open a new Window for detailed Bouy info.


CLICK THIS LINK BELOW TO VIEW POWER OUTAGE IN THE UNITED STATES!

PowerOutage.us is an on going project created to track, record, and aggregate power outages across the united states. Find out more on our About page.
Click on a state to see more information.
Data is updated site wide approximately every ten minutes.

 

 Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!

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